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SRM-AP predicts end of 2nd wave with machine learning

Study employed Susceptible – Infected – Recovered Model

Decline on in Delhi, UP, while Maharashtra will have to wait till mid-July, says SRM-AP's study based on machine learning.

AMRAVATI, Andhra Pradesh, June 2 (The CONNECT) - Even as the nation debates the impact of the second wave of the pandemic, SRM-AP has come out with a study based on machine learning.

States

Uttar Pradesh

Delhi

Karnataka

Maharashtra

Andhra Pradesh

Tamil Nadu

Kerala

West Bengal

 

End-time

May 27

May 28

July 1

July 13

July 16

July 26

August 12

September 2

Errors

-2 days,  + 3 days

-2 days, + 2 days

- 6 days, + 5 days

-7 days, + 7 days

-16 days, + 28 days

-17 days, + 33 days

-14 days, + 14 days

-30 days,  + 30 days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prof. D. Narayana Rao, Pro-Vice-Chancellor, SRM University – AP initiated the study to predict the End-Time of COVID – 19 in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala & West Bengal.  Dr. Soumyajyoti Biswas of SRM University – AP along with 4 B.Tech Students: Mr. Anvesh Reddy, Mr. Hanesh Koganti, Mr. Sai Krishna, and Mr. Suhas Reddy have carried out an interesting study to predict the end time of the second wave of COVID – 19 spread in these states. 

The Study employed Susceptible – Infected – Recovered (SIR) Model making  use of  the information on the COVID – 19 affected people and the number of recovered people, the data which the state governments make them available.  SRM Team made use of these data employed SIR Model and applied the methods of Machine Learning. 

End-Time is defined as the date on which the number of COVID affected cases get reduced to 5% of the peak number of cases occurred in the particular state.

The model is also validated with the actuals occurred in the States of Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, SREM-AP says.

Uttar Pradesh: Peak of 37,944 was n 24th April 2021 and 5% of the peak number is 1897 and is predicted to occur on 27th May with an error of -2 days to +3 days

Actuals: 27th May: 3179

               28th May: 2276

               29th May: 2014

               30th May: 1864

Delhi: Peak of 28,935 was on 20th April 2021 and 5% of the peak number is 1490 and is predicted to occur on 28th May with an error of - 2 days to + 2 days

Actuals: 26th May: 1491

               27th May : 1072

               28th May : 1141

details of the study can be found in [2105.13288] Machine learning predictions of COVID-19 second wave end-times in Indian states (arxiv.org)

 

 

 

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