About two-thirds of poll participants expect the U.S. to fall into a recession in the next 12 months, says Goldman Sachs
NEW YORK, July 15 (The CONNECT) – Is the US heading for recession? This question arises in the light of a Goldman Sachs Marquee Quickpoll results that show that investor sentiment is stubbornly bearish.
“The biggest surprise is that investors have actually not bought into the soft-landing narrative but have merely pushed back their recession expectations by a few quarters,” says Goldman Sachs' Oscar Ostlund, global head of Content Strategy, Market Analytics and Data Science for Marquee in Global Banking & Markets.
The poll surveyed close to 900 institutional investors. Market sentiment is still stuck in “deeply bearish” levels with the latest survey indicating that 59% of respondents view themselves as bearish compared with 25% who say they are bullish, Goldman Sachs said.
According to the survey, about two-thirds of participants expect the U.S. to fall into a recession in the next 12 months and, as a result, favour holding developed market bonds for returns and betting against developed market equities.
Overall, investors view U.S. equity market valuations as expensive, with 57% expecting the S&P 500 to fall below 4,400 by year end. Only 21% expect the S&P 500 to end the year above 4,600.