RBI says the ratcheting up of geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions shoot up inflation curtail domestic growth.
MUMBAI, Apr 8 (The CONNECT) - The Reserve Bank of India, which has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at four percent, has scaled down the GDP growth projections to 7.2% for the current fiscal from 7.8% that was forecast two months ago.
There isn’t any good news on inflation front either. Manufacturing sector firms polled in the Reserve Bank’s industrial outlook survey expect higher input and output price pressures going forward.
Taking into account these factors and on the assumption of a normal monsoon in 2022 and average crude oil price (Indian basket) of US$ 100 per barrel, inflation is now projected at 5.7 per cent in 2022-23, with Q1 at 6.3 per cent; Q2 at 5.8 per cent; Q3 at 5.4 per cent; and Q4 at 5.1 per cent.
The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is of the view that since the February meeting, the ratcheting up of geopolitical tensions, generalised hardening of global commodity prices, the likelihood of prolonged supply chain disruptions, dislocations in trade and capital flows, divergent monetary policy responses and volatility in global financial markets are imparting sizeable upside risks to the inflation trajectory and downside risks to domestic growth.
Given the evolving risks and uncertainties, the MPC has decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent. The MPC also decided to remain accommodative while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth.
In the changed circumstances, the inflation trajectory will depend critically upon the evolving geopolitical situation and its impact on global commodity prices and logistics, RBI said.
On food prices, domestic prices of cereals have registered increases in sympathy with international prices, though record food grains production and buffer stock levels should prevent a major flare up in domestic prices.
Elevated global price pressures in key food items such as edible oils, and in animal and poultry feed due to global supply shortages impart high uncertainty to the food price outlook, warranting continuous monitoring.
In this scenario, pro-active supply management is critical to contain inflation. International crude oil prices remain volatile and elevated, with considerable uncertainties surrounding global supplies, RBI said.
With the broad-based surge in prices of key industrial inputs and global supply chain disruptions, input cost push pressures appear likely to persist for longer than expected earlier. Their pass-through to retail prices, though limited till now given the continuing slack in the economy, needs to be monitored carefully.
Going forward, good prospects of rabi output augur well for rural demand. With the ebbing of the third wave and expanding vaccination coverage, the pick-up in contact-intensive services and urban demand is expected to be sustained. The government’s thrust on capital expenditure coupled with initiatives such as the production linked incentive (PLI) scheme should bolster private investment activity, amidst improving capacity utilisation, deleveraged corporate balance sheets, higher offtake of bank credit and congenial financial conditions.
At the same time, the escalation of the geopolitical situation and the accompanying surge in international crude oil and other commodity prices, tightening of global financial conditions, persistence of supply-side disruptions and significantly weaker external demand pose downside risks to the outlook. The future course of the pandemic and the uncertainties about the pace of monetary policy normalisation in major advanced economies also weigh on the outlook.