Goldman Sachs Research says the drag from tariffs should give way to a boost from business and personal tax cuts.
NEW YORK, Jan 16 (The CONNECT) -The US economy is poised for stronger performance this year than many economists are projecting, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
“Our strongest conviction views for 2026 are our above-consensus GDP growth forecast and our below-consensus inflation forecast,” writes David Mericle, chief US economist, in the team’s report. “The outlook for the labor market is more uncertain—we expect it to stabilize but see the possibility of further softening as the key risk for 2026.
US GDP is projected to expand 2.5% in 2026 (fourth quarter, year over year), versus the consensus economist estimate of 2.1%, according to Goldman Sachs Research. On a full-year basis, the economy is forecast to grow 2.8%. The probability of a recession in the next 12 months has fallen from 30% to 20%. All forecasts are as of January 11.
For a detaikled analysis of the US economy, please clkick here.
